1 March: Seasonal Climate Watch – March to July 2021

Provided by the South African Weather Service

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a La Niña state and the forecast indicates that it will most likely weaken and possibly return to a neutral state by the winter season. The influence on South Africa from ENSO however is expected to dissipate as we move towards the autumn and winter months. The multi-model rainfall forecast indicates mostly above-normal rainfall with drier than normal patches scattered in parts of the north-east and south-west in late autumn (Apr-May-Jun) and early winter (May-Jun-Jul). Mostly below normal minimum and maximum temperatures are expected over the country with the exception of the interior, especially during the late autumn. By contrast, early winter will see a modest signal for above normal minimums and maximums over the interior, but cooler than normal elsewhere. The detailed report can be downloaded here.

We will continue to provide these updates on any future assessments that may provide more clarity on the current expectations for the coming seasons.

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